January Auto Sales Expected to Be Flat from a Year Ago

SANTA MONICA, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–ALG,
the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a
vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries,
will reach 1,130,500 units in January, down 1.5 percent from a year ago.

This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light
vehicle sales is an estimated 17.5 million units for the month, down
from an 18.4 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S.
retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should remain flat with
923,369 units.

“Exceptionally strong sales to close out 2016 led to a slow start
in January, but additional incentives towards the end of the month
helped pick up the slack,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst.

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,635 per
vehicle in January, up 21.6 percent from a year ago, and down 3.3
percent from December 2016.

“On a year-over-year basis, Honda is gaining about 0.5 percent market
share on the continued popularity of its new products in the compact
utility and pick up segments,” said Lyman.

The
University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 98.1 this
month compared to 98.2 in December which further underscores the
strength of a healthy US economy; the December unemployment
rate came in at a nine year low of 4.7 percent in combination with a
favorable average gas price of $2.29
recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for January:

• Registration mix is expected to be 81.7 percent retail sales and 18.3
  percent fleet versus 80.5 percent retail and 19.5 percent fleet last
  January.
• Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships
  and private-party transactions, may reach 3,139,957, up 7.9 percent
  from January 2016.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer		January 2017 Forecast		January 2016		% Change vs. January 2016
BMW		20,700		21,390		-3.2	%
Daimler		25,000		26,962		-7.3	%
FCA		141,000		155,562		-9.4	%
Ford		167,000		172,478		-3.2	%
GM		198,000		203,745		-2.8	%
Honda		105,000		100,497		4.5	%
Hyundai		40,500		45,011		-10.0	%
Kia		40,000		38,305		4.4	%
Nissan		103,000		105,734		-2.6	%
Subaru		46,000		41,101		11.9	%
Toyota		160,000		161,283		-0.8	%
Volkswagen Group		40,500		36,430		11.2	%
Industry		1,130,500		1,148,057		-1.5	%

Total Market Share
Manufacturer			January 2017 Forecast				January 2016				December 2016
BMW			1.8	%			1.9	%			2.2	%
Daimler			2.2	%			2.3	%			2.2	%
FCA			12.5	%			13.6	%			11.5	%
Ford			14.8	%			15.0	%			14.1	%
GM			17.5	%			17.7	%			18.9	%
Honda			9.3	%			8.8	%			9.5	%
Hyundai			3.6	%			3.9	%			3.6	%
Kia			3.5	%			3.3	%			3.2	%
Nissan			9.1	%			9.2	%			9.0	%
Subaru			4.1	%			3.6	%			3.7	%
Toyota			14.2	%			14.0	%			14.4	%
Volkswagen Group			3.6	%			3.2	%			3.8	%

Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer		January 2017 Forecast		January 2016		YoY % Change
BMW		19,884		20,061		-0.9	%
Daimler		23,225		25,170		-7.7	%
FCA		101,500		113,274		-10.4	%
Ford		116,000		114,090		1.7	%
GM		157,000		165,686		-5.2	%
Honda		103,500		99,148		4.4	%
Hyundai		29,000		28,522		1.7	%
Kia		32,500		30,364		7.0	%
Nissan		82,000		79,246		3.5	%
Subaru		44,718		39,280		13.8	%
Toyota		137,000		140,255		-2.3	%
Volkswagen Group		37,635		33,893		11.0	%
Industry		923,369		923,674		0.0	%

Incentive Spending
Manufacturer		Incentive per Unit Jan 2017 Forecast			Incentive per Unit Jan 2016			Incentive per Unit December 2016			Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Jan 2016			Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Dec 2016		Total Spending January 2017 Forecast
BMW		$	6,016		$	4,192		$	5,956		43.5	%		1.0	%	$	124,114,569
Daimler		$	4,648		$	3,592		$	4,885		29.4	%		-4.8	%	$	116,207,827
FCA		$	4,408		$	3,856		$	4,469		14.3	%		-1.4	%	$	616,627,187
Ford		$	4,114		$	3,054		$	4,156		34.7	%		-1.0	%	$	687,038,184
GM		$	4,504		$	4,094		$	4,653		10.0	%		-3.2	%	$	891,763,957
Honda		$	2,231		$	1,672		$	2,289		33.5	%		-2.5	%	$	234,289,096
Hyundai		$	2,602		$	1,904		$	2,603		36.7	%		0.0	%	$	105,400,435
Kia		$	3,411		$	2,823		$	3,390		20.8	%		0.6	%	$	136,457,746
Nissan		$	4,335		$	3,502		$	4,463		23.8	%		-2.9	%	$	446,508,217
Subaru		$	1,120		$	570		$	1,170		96.6	%		-4.2	%	$	51,539,888
Toyota		$	2,538		$	2,093		$	2,820		21.3	%		-10.0	%	$	406,097,261
Volkswagen Group		$	4,117		$	3,155		$	4,254		30.5	%		-3.2	%	$	165,486,112
Industry		$	3,635		$	2,990		$	3,761		21.6	%		-3.3	%	$	4,090,739,254
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an
industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the
United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each
year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial
services clients with market industry insights, residual value
forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk
services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital
automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency
about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50
years and in Canada since 1981.

Contacts

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Veronica
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424-258-2487
VCardenas@truecar.com