New Report Shows that Medicare Advantage Payments Won’t Keep Pace With Costs in 2018

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Payment cuts would threaten benefits and savings for more than 18
million seniors

WASHINGTON–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Millions of seniors who depend on Medicare Advantage (MA) plans could
see cuts to their coverage and benefits if new payment changes take
effect next year. That’s according to a new analysis by Oliver Wyman
prepared for America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP).

Earlier this month, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS)
released proposed changes to MA rates that will impact the 18.5 million
seniors enrolled in the program. According to Oliver Wyman, these
changes, if finalized, would result in an estimated 2 percent reduction
to MA net revenues in 2018.

These reductions come at a time when Medicare costs are rising at nearly
3 percent, according to CMS.

“We estimate that the payment policies proposed in the 2018 Advance
Notice could disrupt beneficiaries in the MA market,” the report states.

The most significant factors affecting the MA program include:

  • Health Insurance Tax (HIT) (2.1 percent cut). If the HIT is not
    repealed for 2018, costs for MA plans will increase by 2.1 percent,
    and could result in reduced benefits for MA enrollees.
  • Risk Adjustment (1.9 percent cut): The agency is proposing to
    update a technical adjustment it makes to calculate risk scores, which
    would reduce program funding by 1.9 percent. The reduction would fall
    particularly hard on plans’ efforts to improve beneficiaries’ health
    through early detection and prevention of chronic conditions, and
    exacerbates cuts CMS implemented last year that target health plans’
    efforts to improve quality of care.
  • Employer Group Waiver Plans (EGWPs) (up to 0.20 percent
    program-wide; 1.25 percent cut for EGWPs)
    : Employers, including
    state and local governments, as well as union sponsors, use customized
    EGWP products to finance retiree coverage for more than 3.6 million
    beneficiaries. CMS’ proposals to continue paying EGWP plans based on
    non-EGWP plan bids would lead to significant uncertainty in the cost
    of providing coverage for retirees, and they could lead to disruptions
    in their coverage and benefits.

Oliver Wyman also notes that CMS would maintain the use of encounter
data to calculate risk scores. However, the system used to capture these
data has numerous unresolved operational and technical issues and fails
to capture a reliable, comprehensive picture of beneficiaries’
diagnoses. This could put payments at risk, which could also increase
premiums and decrease benefits.

“Seniors should not face any further cuts to their coverage,” AHIP
President and CEO Marilyn Tavenner said. “Medicare Advantage works. We
urge CMS to protect millions of seniors across the country by taking
steps needed to avoid further cuts to the Medicare Advantage program.”

The new report comes at a time when a growing number of voices are
urging CMS to prevent further cuts to MA, including large bipartisan
support from members of Congress. AHIP’s Coalition for Medicare Choices
(CMC), the largest advocacy group of more than 2 million MA seniors,
recently launched a nationwide grassroots and ad campaign to protect MA.
Final payment rates are expected on April 3, 2017.

Below is a brief analysis of the proposed changes:

 
Estimated Net Revenue Impact in 2018 for MAOs
        Impact (%)         Impact (%)
  Oliver Wyman CMS Estimate
     
Change in Plan’s Star Rating for 2018 -0.4% -0.4%
Coding Intensity Change for 2018 -0.25% -0.25%
Change in FFS Normalization for 2018 -1.9% -1.9%
Change from RAPS to EDS data submission 0.0% Not Included
Change to EGWP Payment Policy 0.0 to -0.2% Not Included
Health Care Cost Growth for 2018 (Ratebook Change) 2.8% 2.8%
Subtotal Impact for 2018 (Excluding Health Insurer Tax) 0.05 to 0.25% 0.25%
Reinstatement of Health Insurer Tax for 2018 -2.1% Not Included
Total Net Revenue Impact for 2018 -1.85 to -2.05% 0.25%
 

To view the full report, click
here
.

About AHIP

America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP) is the national association
whose members provide coverage for health care and related services to
millions of Americans every day. Through these offerings, we improve and
protect the health and financial security of consumers, families,
businesses, communities and the nation. We are committed to market-based
solutions and public-private partnerships that improve affordability,
value, access and well-being for consumers. Visit www.ahip.org
Learn more about health insurance and how it works at myhealthplan.guide.

Contacts

America’s Health Insurance Plans
Kristine Grow, 202-778-3227
kgrow@ahip.org