As in other regions of the country, President Barack Obama received overwhelming support from Latinonvoters in Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico according to the ImpreMedia and Latino Decisions Election Eve Survey, a comprehensive survey of the presidential election this November 6, 2012 analyzing the Latino vote, preferences and political views of Hispanic voters in the United States. In these three states, President Obama took the lead with more than three quarters of the Latino electorate. In Colorado, Obama’s lead over Romney was almost 9-1.
Colorado, a state that could be crucial in this election, gave Obama 87% of the Latino voters surveyed with Romney barely taking 10%, according to the ImpreMedia and Latino Decisions Election Eve Survey. In Arizona and New Mexico the preference for the President was also significant with 79% of Latino voters surveyed in Arizona choosing Obama and 20% for Romney, while in New Mexico Obama took 77% and 21% for Romney.
Obama’s lead in certain battleground states like Colorado could impact the overall outcome of the presidential election. Generally speaking, this large margin of victory for Obama among Latino voters is consistent with the weekly surveys of voting intentions that ImpreMedia and Latino Decisions has been carrying out in recent months.
In the case of Arizona, the home of the anti-immigrant law SB1070, the overwhelming support for Obama reinforces the notion that for Latinos in this area of the country, the issue of immigration, on which the President has recently been much more active, is key and a candidate like Romney suffers suggestions of self-deportation of undocumented immigrants.
“Romney has tried to maximize the white vote and has not competed in a smart way for the Latino vote,” said Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice. “On the other hand, Obama did very little for Latinos but mass deportations until he took a courageous stand on behalf of “Dreamers” even though many of his advisers were against it. This act has managed to increase the energy and enthusiasm of the Latino vote for him in this election, “said Sharry.
In this regard, Ben Monterroso, executive director of Mi Familia Vota, said “the time has come for political parties and candidates to realize that immigration reform and the immigrant issue should be solved. For me this is only the beginning of respect for our community, the campaign toward immigration reform should begin immediately after this election, and whoever wins the issue has to be solved.”
This ImpreMedia / Latino Decisions special poll was conducted between November 1-5 with 5,600 Latinos who exercised their early voting right or were absolutely certain to attend the ballot box on today’s presidential election day. The Election Eve Survey was carried out with a national sample and additional samples in 11 key states, both because of the influence Latino voters have in those states and their relevancy in the outcome of the presidential election and the counting of the Electoral College votes, which define who will hold the Presidency of the United States for the next four years.
In the hotly contested Senate races in these states, the ImpreMedia – Latino Decisions Election Eve Survey show Latino voters were also widely pro-Democrat: in Arizona, 79% came down on the side of Democrat Richard Carmona vs. only 17% for Republican Jeff Flake, and in New Mexico 77% for Republican Heather Wilson.
In relation to the federal congressional elections, Latino voters surveyed in Arizona, Colorado and New Mexico showed, in general, a trend largely favorable to Democrats. In the House of Representatives: 82% for Democrats and 18% for Republicans in Arizona, 88% for Democrats and 12% for Republicans in Colorado and 80% for Democrats and 20% for Republicans in New Mexico.
In addition to the way Latinos voted, the ImpreMedia and Latino Decisions Election Eve Survey explored how Latino voters saw the presidential candidates and they generally were much more in favor of Obama over Romney.
The Election Eve Survey asked Latino voters if they believed Obama and Romney were people who really cared about the Latino community, did not care much or were even hostile toward it. Obama received consistent favorable support, with percentages of Latino voters believing that the President cares much for the Latino community of around 69% in Arizona and New Mexico and 80% in Colorado. In contrast, the percentages for Romney for that same question in the corresponding states were much lower at 14% in Arizona and New Mexico and 9% in Colorado.
The perception of Romney as a politician who does not care much for Latinos was, however, high among Latino voters surveyed: 58% in Arizona, 59% in Colorado and 55% in New Mexico said he did not care about Latinos.
“It appears that the level of support that the President is going to receive will be consistent with prior the surveys of Latino voters. We expect to meet our projections of 12 million Latino voters and if we reach that level the President will do very well, but if Latino voters turn out in lesser numbers then this will indeed be a very close election,” said Arturo Vargas, executive director of the NALEO Educational Fund.
Latino Decisions completed 5,600 interviews with Latinos who have already voted, or were certain to vote in the November 6, 2012 presidential election. Interviews were conducted via telephone with live callers, all of whom were bilingual, and interviews were completed in the language of preference of the respondent. Overall, 62% of interviews were completed in English and 38% in Spanish. Respondents were reached on landline and cell phone-only households, from November 1-5, 2012 and averaged 12 minutes in length. Voters were pre-screened based on their vote history in previous presidential elections, and date of registration to include a mix of new registrants and first-time voters.
Respondents were asked if they had already voted early, and if not, if they were 100% certain they would vote on November 6th. Any respondent who was not certain was terminated. For 11 individual states, a minimum of 400 interviews were completed to provide state-specific reliable estimates. For the remaining 39 states and the District of Columbia an additional national sample was completed, and then combined with the 11 stand-alone state samples for an overall combined nationally proportionate sample.
The national sample of 5,600 is directly proportionate to the Latino voter population nationwide, and is weighted to reflect the known Census demographics for Latino voters. The national sample carries an overall margin of error of 1.8%. California and Florida each had 800 completed ninterviews and carry a margin of error of 3.5%. The remaining 9 individual states sampled: AZ, CO, MA, NC, NM, NV, OH, TX, VA all had 400 completed interviews and carry a margin of error of 4.9%. Interviewing was administered and overseen by Pacific Market Research.