Go to college or being unemployed
When it comes to bad weather, one needs shelter. The same is true when it comes to young adults surviving a tough economic period, such as…
Graduates entering the job market. (Shutterstock)
When it comes to bad weather, one needs shelter. The same is true when it comes to young adults surviving a tough economic period, such as the Great Recession that started in 2008. The idea is high school graduates can shelter themselves by either going to college or entering the job market.
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A recent Economic Policy Institute study The Class of 2014 painted a dire picture for todays youth, with young high school graduates experiencing an unemployment rate of 22.9 percent (compared with 15.9 percent in 2007).
The unemployment rate for young people overall is extremely high, so the question gets raised, are people able to shelter in school because job opportunities are so weak? Are we seeing enrollment rates pick up? Economic Policy Institute Economist Heidi Shierholz told VOXXI.
What we find is between 2007 and 2012 increases in enrollment rates were no bigger than when the recession hit. It didnt seem to be that people were sheltering in school and then since 2013, enrollment rates have plummeted.So not only are they not sheltering in school, but theres been a big drop. Shierholz said the result is an increase in the share of young people who are disconnected and idle. This notion is substantiated by data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics stating last fall less than 66 percent of recent high school graduates enrolled in college, which is down from 70 percent in 2009.
Theyre not enrolled in school, not employed, Shierholz said. Theyre just sort of this two key paths that young people can take to set themselves up for their future getting a job or getting an additional degree. Those have just been blocked. While Shierholz said she doesnt include enrollment rates broken down by race, another recently released study does.
The idea is high school graduates can shelter themselves by either going to college or entering the job market. (Shutterstock photo)
A Pew Research Center report released last fall revealed Hispanic high school graduates have surpassed whites in the college enrollment rate. In fact, a record 69 percent of Hispanic high school graduates enrolled in college, which was two percentage points higher than the rate among their white counterparts. Proving the figure isnt an anomaly, the class of 2000 found only 49 percent of Hispanic high school graduates immediately enrolled in college the following fall.
Furthermore, when the Pew Research Center study is juxtaposed with Class of 2014, the results are fascinating. If it were a one-year thing, Id say its not a big deal, but [Hispanic college enrollment] has been increasing since 2008, Shierholz said.
That looks like a trend upward. I dont have a good economic intuition for why that might be. As for her study, Shierholz said the slow growth of the labor market is the issue. Weve made very little progress in bringing down the share of young people who are having both of those paths blocked to them, the share of young people who are not enrolled in school and not employed, Shierholz said.
There was a big drop for college enrollment from 2012 to 2013, and it continued to drop in the first three months of 2014, which is the latest data we have. So at this point, its more than just a one-year trend. But the enrollment numbers are pretty volatile from year to year, so there could be another spike up. I hope this doesnt continue, because college enrollment is really important to economic mobility of more disadvantaged groups.
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