The midterm paradox of the US Latino vote

The 2014 midterm elections have become the year of the Latino, with record numbers eligible to vote in a campaign where control of the Senate and the fate of the legacy of Barack Obama’s presidency are at stake.

It would seem like an extraordinary moment for Hispanics in American politics except for one critically important fact:

 Latino political clout will be sharply limited because few of this year’s competitive races that will impact control of the U.S. Senate and the future of Obama’s final two years in the White House are taking place in states with significant Latino populations.

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It means that the Latino voter impact may not be as large as expected given their growing electoral and demographic clout across the country.

These are the conclusions from a new study from the Pew Research Center that puts a damper on a campaign to counter Latino frustration over Congressional gridlock that has stalled passage of comprehensive immigration reform.

It comes as a disappointing paradox that though a record 25.2 million Latinos are eligible to vote in these midterm elections — comprising 10.7 percent of eligible voters nationwide — they only make up a small share of voters in the many states with close Senate and gubernatorial races this year.

There are more sobering revelations in the Pew report.

Hispanic voter turnout, which was 31.2 percent in the 2010 midterm elections, remains more than 13 percent lower than both that of blacks and whites.

Attribute that to the Latino population being relatively young and the tendency of young voters to have lower turnout rates. In these midterms, a 33 percent of eligible Hispanic voters are ages 18-29 compared to only 18 percent among white voters and 25 percent of black voters who are in that age group.

So Latinos likely can only watch from the national sidelines at the political drama that will play out election night.

Specifically, in the eight states with the closest Senate races, just 5 percent of eligible voters on average are Latinos and average substantially under half of the national average.

Colorado — where Democrat Mark Udall is fighting to keep his seat and where Latinos are 14.2 percent of the electorate — is the only state with a competitive Senate race where the Hispanic voter share is above the national average.

The state among the eight with the second-highest Hispanic potential voter population is Kansas, at 6 percent.

Democrats currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, and two independents — Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont — caucus with the party. Republicans need a net gain of six seats to capture a majority in the Senate.

The situation is similarly discouraging for Latino impact in the few close congressional districts in the country, as Republicans are almost certain to keep control of the House of Representatives.

In six of the 14 competitive House races across the country, fewer than 5 percent of eligible voters are Latinos.

Those include three in California, two in Arizona and one each in Florida, Colorado and Illinois.