Claudia Sheinbaum Outmaneuvers Trump’s Monroe Doctrine Redux

Donald Trump lost face after backing down on his 25% tariffs on Mexico for the second time since starting his Presidential term. But President Claudia Sheinbaum has emerged stronger with her approval ratings increasing from 70% at the time of her election to 85% in March.

 On March 6th Trump erratically announced that he would take another 30 days pause on tariffs coming from Mexico. This occurred just two days after publicly stating that there was nothing that Mexico could do to stop the tariffs and suggesting that cartels have an alliance with the Mexican government amid the administration’s military buildup at the border.

Trump has been trying to impose a Monroe Doctrine Redux, reminiscent of gunboat diplomacy that defined American foreign policy in the 19^th and early 20^th century when the United States used its military might to intimidate countries into complying with its interests amid concerns about British and European imperial competition in the Americas. However, unlike the original Monroe Doctrine crafted in 1821, when the United States was a young, rising power, the Monroe Doctrine Redux unfolds at a time when US hegemony is in decline and China’s influence is on the rise in Latin America.

But how has Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum handled this Monroe Doctrine Redux?

She has indeed made concessions to Trump by handing over 29 major drug cartel leaders to U.S. authorities and by deploying 10,000 Mexican troops to the Northern Border for anti-drug and anti-migrant operations. Nonetheless, she is emerging victorious thus far.

The Mexican President has skillfully and strategically emerged stronger. She frequently emphasizes the importance of “serenity and patience”, and that “cool heads prevail” during her daily press conferences, which act as a direct line of communication with the Mexican masses.

When Trump announced tariffs on March 4, President Sheinbaum refused to announce retaliatory measures. Instead, she called for a national mobilization on March 9 where she would announce her response.  The mobilization was held in the Zocalo– the historic Plaza of the Aztecs and of the modern Mexican nation. 

This was a brilliant move that bought her time. President Sheinbaum called for the mobilization on March 4, knowing that Trump would have to back down on his promise of imposing his tariffs because the stock market would crash. Moreover, she knew she could call Trump’s bluff because the US auto industry that has most of its plants in Mexico was going to push back against the tariffs. She essentially avoided a direct conflict, allowing the market and Canada to confront Trump’s tariffs.  

Whereas Trump lost face over these policies, President Claudia Sheinbaum came out a stronger leader after the March 9^th national mobilization of at least 500,000, with millions watching on TV and on social media.  With this she revindicated Mexico’s prestige in international affairs and consolidated support domestically.

This mobilization represents the formation of a Mexican historic bloc, a united front that brings together groups from civil society with the state.  It is constituted by mass-based organizations, labor unions, farmers, Indigenous people, afro-descendants, women, immigrants, political parties and sectors of capital that stand to lose from the tariffs.

This is the type of mass organization that allowed for Lazaro Cardenas (President of Mexico 1934-1940) to mobilize the nation behind him to nationalize American oil companies in Mexico and to survive the wrath of the United States during a tumultuous time in global affairs. 

The battle over tariffs is certainly not over. But President Sheinbaum is building a historic bloc that stands behind her and she is winning over millions around the globe, making her one of the most powerful Women in the world.  

Abelardo Mariña Flores (PhD) is a Titular Professor in the Research Area of Society and Capitalist Accumulation of the Economics Department at Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana (UAM).